I'm in a bit of disagreement with most of the things I have read which seem to call Cotto a shot fighter. I don't think he is at all. He might be slightly past his prime because of all the great fighters he has faced but I don't think he is shot.
That said I think Foreman beats him. I think Foreman is too fast and too skilled a boxer for Cotto. Not to mention I don't think Cotto will translate well at 154. I wouldn't be surprised win or lose if this is Cotto's last fight.
I will miss him he has been one of my favorites for years
Mike- We're pretty quick to pull the trigger on the "shot" designation anymore. I think he SHOULD be back facing fighters I know he can beat and rebuilding. Moving up in weight, and going for a title in your first fight at the new weight is (in my opinion, win or lose) pretty piss poor regard for your fighter......and unfortunately kind of common place anymore.
Should he lose and retire, I'll forever beleive that his career was cut short by at least one opponent who didn't play within the rules, and a pretty demanding schedule. Like you, I'll miss him when he's gone, whether that's tommorow night or down the road a bit.
I too am a huge Cotto fan, I thought he had it all, great boxing skills, good power, solid chin and a nice bloke to boot.
Never thought he was shot either. His loss to Margarito I think was genuine, its impossible for us to know that Tony had some plaster in there, but many people are quick to jump to conclusions. However the outcome would have been the same regardless. Cotto dominated early and gassed out somewhat. Tony broke his heart by keeping taking the shots and wore Cotto down (maybe aided, we never know).
Anyway I believe Foreman has been very carefully managed and is somewhat of a paper champion. He is a good fighter, but doesn't do anything particularly exceptional. I think Cotto's confidence is pretty damaged but he handled Clottey well with a cut after his first loss, and so I think he will win this fight on points.
What gets me is how little credit he got for the Mosley fight. He won comfortably, and people just thought Mosley was old. Then suddenly Mosley dominates Margarito (A great win don't get me wrong), but because of the high profile of the scandal he got so much credit millions were on the Shane bandwagon and he was the only person who could beat Floyd in many people's eyes.
He got beat handily by Floyd, and Cotto got a beat down by Manny and yet still at this stage I think Mosley is stil held in higher regard than the slightly faded Cotto who beat him no problem a few years back.
Tontb, I had Cotto beating Mosley, but there's a lot of people who'd argue with your assessment that Cotto beat Shane with "no problem", I know quite a few who thought SSM edged him out and should've gotten the nod. I'm not one of them, but know several who are.
As for a possible Decision tonight? Well, I HOPE this doesn't come to pass, but you've heard the arguements where people say "Buy" or "Sell" like the issue at hand was on the Stock Market? Well, I think in terms of Top Rank, I think the better fighter is a "Sell" in terms of promoting him. Top Rank is going hard and heavy on this Rabbi Shit and pushing Foreman's Story, and at the same time there's been friction between Cotto and Top Rank for some time now. I think there's no question in my mind who they'd like to see win tonight.....and I think the Judges, who due to our ridiculous system by which a Promoter pays them their money, would have to be blind to not be aware of who the prefered pick is. I'd be VERY surprised if Cotto gets the nod on anything reaonably close. In fact, I think all Yuri Foreman has to do is simply be standing at the end.